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CADDIS Volume 1

Figure: Verified Predictions

Figure 3-10. Verified Predictions

A clever assessor predicts that if the impairment (dead fish) is due to a cholinesterase inhibiting pesticide, he would find that crustaceans would also be dead, but organisms without cholinergic systems would be alive. If he then searches for evidence at the site and finds dead crayfish and live rotifers (upper right panel), that strengthens the candidate cause. If the crayfish are alive (lower right panel), that weakens the candidate cause.

Figure 3-10 shows 2 scenarios where the risk assessors knows that the impairment would kill other things (which strenghtens the case) but if it doesn't, that weakens the case.Figure 3-10. Verified Predictions can Support or Weaken the Case

Explanation of the Types of Evidence Illustrations

This description applies to each of the types of evidence illustrations. These illustrations provide graphic explanations of the types of evidence. They are somewhat abstract to convey that they are representative of the concept rather than illustrations of particular applications. The live fish (green and upright) represent unimpaired organisms, populations or communities of all types, not just fish. The dead fish (white and belly-up at the surface) represent all biological impairments, not just dead fish. The pipe represents all sources and the yellow effluent plume represents all causal agents (stressors), not just effluents or even chemicals. Clock faces represent the passage of time, not the particular time difference illustrated. Fish in beakers represent laboratory tests. Other graphic elements used in particular illustrations are explained in the caption.

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